Trends voor 2003
Als iedereen dan toch met lijstjes komt kan ik natuurlijk niet achterblijven.
Terugkijkend naar 2002 dan verwacht ik voor het komend jaar de volgende trends: (in willekeurige volgorde):
1. Spam (ongewenste email) zal extreem toenemen (met name in b2b);
2. Overheid en gezondheidszorg zullen drijvende kracht worden voor ICT;
3. MMS wordt de nieuwe killerapp voor mobile en daarmee de opvolger voor SMS;
4. Niet UMTS maar GPRS zal de komende jaren HET netwerk zijn voor mobile;
5. Wireless en breedband Internet zullen nog niet echtdoorbreken bij het grote publiek;
6. Betaalde opname in zoekmachines en directories zal traditionele e-marketing verdringen;
7. Online verkopen zullen verder stijgen en een significant deel omzet realiseren voor retailers;
8. Usability zal belangrijkste aandachtsgebied worden bij verdere verbetering websites;
9. Web analytics zal zich derhalve meer gaan richten op clickstream analyse (bezoekersgedrag);
10. Ebusiness is business as usual.
Oprichter/partner Upstream, Marketingfacts, Arnhem Direct, SportNext, TravelNext, RvT VPRO, Bestuur Luxor Live, social business, onderwijs, fotografie en vader!
#1) Broadband is coming – really!
Our figure for broadband household penetration this year (growing 50%, from 11.2 million in 2001 to 16.8 million households by year-end 2002), but the fact is that all leading researchers report broadband growth rates of at least 50% for 2002. Next year, there will be 23.3 million households on broadband, representing 22% of all US households and 33% of Internet households. Broadband Internet users across home, work and college will number 50 million in 2003. This will create a “critical mass” of high-speed, always-on connections that will be irresistible for marketers wanting to interact with customers and prospects through rich media ads, streaming audio and video and highly dynamic, personalized websites. Research data also indicates that broadband users spend more time online, get online more frequently and buy more online than their dial-up counterparts.
#2) The At-Work Online Audience Will Become the “Next Big Thing”
Depending on which researcher you subscribe to, there are between 50 million and 60 million Americans who regularly go online at work during the day. Moreover, this massive segment of the population is more affluent, educated and net-savvy than internet users who go online only at home. According to comScore, 86% of at-work internet users are on broadband. By the end of 2003, the at-work online audience will become so important that advertisers will actually start segmenting their online ad buys by time of day and demographic subgroups. Imagine McDonald’s advertising its burgers and fries in the 11:00 A.M. to noon slot on Yahoo!, AOL and Weather.com. Expect to see Michelob ads with rich media-enhanced pour shots on Fridays between 4:00 P.M. and 5:00 P.M.
#3) More Users, Shoppers and Buyers
Though the growth in number of internet users is slowing, there will still be a total of 162 million online in the US by year-end 2003 — 147 million of whom will be age 14 or older, with money and a desire to spend. This 14+ group will represent 64.5% of the population in that age segment. Advertisers wanting to reach them should also realize that 81%, or 119 million, will engage in online shopping behavior such as researching products and services (whether or not they actually purchase online). The number of online buyers will also grow, rising from 72.6 million in 2002 to 80 million by year-end 2003. This data points to a huge opportunity for advertisers to deliver relevant, timely messages at what could be the point of purchase.
To be continued…