De financiële kant van de Facebook IPO

215 Reacties

iFreek
Met deze koers/winst verhouding gaat men zondermeer uit van een winstgroei, waardoor de k/w weer naar de normale verhouding van +/- 10 gaat. Hierdoor is er geen ruimte meer voor koersstijging of winstdaling. Er valt weinig te verdienen op het aandeel.
Bovendien is het businessmodel zwak en het risico dus hoog.
Koop geen aandelen omdat je het bedrijf hot of leuk vindt, maar omdat het een goede investering lijkt in een goed gespreide portfolio.
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19 mei 2012 om 17:21
Byung Koo Mulder
Beste Sander,
In de blog benoem ik het heel kort in de laatste alinea. Het zou anders een zeer ‘technisch’ verhaal worden. Je hebt zeker gelijk, de zakenbanken hebben de koers niet willen laten zakken onder de $38 vrijdag. Zie mijn twitter, voor de foto!
De ‘zandzakken’ lagen er op $38. Ruim 10 miljoen aandelen, wat betekent dat je dus ruim 400 miljoen USD nodig zou hebben om deze barriere te slechten.
Een kanttekening, Morgan Stanley is de grootste underwriter, maar het steunen van de koers hoeft niet alleen van Morgan Stanley te komen. Samen met Goldman Sachs en JP Morgan hebben ze 73%. Aangezien JP Morgan laatst een handelsverlies moest melden van 2 miljard USD, zullen zij waarschijnlijk aan de zijlijn hebben gestaan.
Wat ik al aangaf in desbetreffende alinea, zakenbanken zullen zeker de eerste dag, niet publiekelijk af willen gaan. Niet alleen Morgan Stanley, maar alle underwriters.
Kunstmatig kan je het niet noemen, want het zijn werkelijk verhandelbare aandelen. Hoe meer er verkocht gaat worden op $38, hoe meer aandelen dus de zakenbanken/underwriters van Facebook op de plank hebben liggen. Logisch is ook dat dit natuurlijk niet eeuwig vol te houden is.
Het voordeel kan zijn dat er nu vanuit de G8 top wat positieve geluiden komen en tevens dat in Griekenland, de pro-euro partijen wat aan terrein winnen. Dit kan morgen dus voor opluchting zorgen en dat kan weer betekenen dat ook een aandeel Facebook omhoog wordt meegezogen.
Dan hoeven de zakenbanken $38 ‘line’ niet te verdedigen.
Om zeer ‘technisch’ te eindigen, elk aandeel die zakenbanken nu of hebben gekregen op $38, betekent dat er dus ook mensen zijn die de aandelen hebben verkocht. Als deze naked short zijn gegaan, bestaat er een risico dat er een short squeeze kan komen in het aandeel Facebook. Inside information: zakenbanken hebben een hekel aan verliezen.
Binnenkort een goed ontvangen persbericht ‘Facebook neemt…….. over’ en het aandeel staat $50 omdat de ‘shorters’ van nu, overal elkaar heen vallen om hun verliezen te dekken. Dan denken particulieren beleggers, toch maar aandelen Facebook kopen en wie zijn dan de verkopende partijen? De zakenbanken die nog wat aandeeltjes Facebook hadden liggen op $38.
Wilde een wat ‘luchtige’ blog schrijven over de hype Facebook IPO. Marketingfacts is meer gericht op marketing/social media dan alle levels van de financiele markt.
Schroom niet om te reageren of jouw mening te ventileren. Succes en ik hou de blog in de gaten.
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19 mei 2012 om 22:34
Byung Koo Mulder
Edwin,
Bedankt voor je reactie en bijdrage. Leuk om te lezen.
Waarom Amazon niet is opgenomen, is en denk dat jij het ook weet dat de huidige P/E alleen nu zo hoog is, omdat Amazon de Kindle verkoopt met verlies. P/E in de jaren voorafgaand aan introductie Kindle, was tussen de 30-60 voor Amazon.
Link met voetballers was met een knipoog bedoeld. 🙂
Ben het totaal niet met je eens dat een koers enkel en alleen op toekomstige cashflows zijn gebaseerd. Er zit altijd een verwachting bij (toekomst), op je moet een glazen bol op je bureau hebben staan. Daarnaast is sentiment zeker een bepalende factor die niets met cashflows te maken heeft.
Betreft lock up periode zoals vermeld in de blog, staat voor medewerkers en dat is correct (180 dagen). Jij hebt gelijk dat voor insiders (institutionele partijen) dit is verlaagd naar 90 dagen. Voor medewerkers niet.
Absoluut er leiden altijd meer wegen naar Rome. Een ander scenario kan ook leiden tot het doel. We zijn er in ieder geval met elkaar eens dat ze wel IETS moeten gaan doen.
Kwinkslag, net als wij het altijd beter weten dan Bert van Marwijk en Nederland 16 miljoen bondscoaches kent in tijden van een EK of WK. Zijn er vast miljoenen over de wereld die nu weten wat Facebook moet gaan doen.
We gaan het zien!
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20 mei 2012 om 11:23
Online No-No
ja ja ja .. maareh .. wat vindt Nina Brink ervan?
serieus:
bijna alle platform startups beginnen met advertising of subscription verdienmodellen als ze genoeg gebruikers hebben.
De vraag is dus niet ‘kan Facebook x meer advertenties verkopen?’ maar juist ‘welk subscriptionmodel gaat Facebook introduceren?’
Hun lange termijn visie is een ‘sociaal internet’ en hun grootste beperking is: het huidige internet.
Daarom steken ze geld in een mobiel data netwerk en daarom bouwen ze partnerships met wereldwijde merken om hun socialbusiness platform te zijn.
Als je kijkt naar hun staffing zijn het vooral developers, geen klantenservice. Een handjevol verkopers die de partnerships managen. The money is not in the users, its in the platform.
dus.. is 38,- teveel? Is GM’s berichtgeving alarmerend? Vooral de mensen in de oude economie zullen dat zo zien.
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21 mei 2012 om 08:05
Shamier Coffie
Bedank voor de post heel interessant!
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21 mei 2012 om 10:15
Byung Koo Mulder
De koers van Facebook noteert meer dan 10% lager vandaag!
Op weg naar de onderkant van de allereerste bandbreedte, $28-$35?
Het kan snel gaan als beleggers hun vertrouwen verliezen. Nu ze genoteerd zijn aan de Nasdaq zullen ze dit ook gaan ondervinden. Early bird investeerders reageren anders. 🙂
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21 mei 2012 om 15:43
Hans Belt
Heel veel technisch en met vakkennis geschreven en gereageerd. Als ik het nou eens simpeler bekijk zeg ik als beleggingsleek dat dit nooit goed kan gaan. Wat is het product van Facebook? Een website waarop iedereen zich gratis kan aanmelden. Hoe kan een bedrijf 100 Miljard waard zijn als ze hun product weggeven aan de consument? Een zeepbel dus!
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30 juli 2012 om 10:02
Jaap Tilstra
Tja. En zeepbelenduiken naar 40% onder de IPO of gaan zelf nog lager. En dan te bedenen dat de lock-up al voor de eerste 450 miljoen aandelen op 15 augustus staat gepland. En dan nog nog maar net te spreken over de 1.3 miljard aandelen die op 3 november (gelukkig geen vrijdag dan) loskomen… pfff..
En dan te bedenken dat er ook nog 400 mln Restricted Stock Units in omloop zijn. Wat gaat het personeel doen als ze niet gecompeneerd wordt ??? Gaan ze FB verlaten of zal FB de kassalade open moeten trekken ?
100 keer de winst is ook absurd voor dit soort hypefondsen.
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22 maart 2015 om 23:55
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23 maart 2015 om 20:11
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24 maart 2015 om 10:07
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